Wednesday was an absolute massacre at the National Bank Open, also known as the Canadian Open or Canada Masters, in Montreal. The top three – Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas – all lost, blowing the lottery completely and opening the door for any of the remaining 16 players to claim the title.
Even with the top seeds dropping like flies, there’s plenty of star power on the agenda with Nick Kyrgios, Janek Sener and Felix Auger-Aliassime all on Thursday.
But another exciting player, Gael Monfils, can offer the best betting value in the Round of 16:
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ATP Montreal odds, predictions, tennis picks today
Gael Monfils (-125) vs. Jack Draper (+100)
Time: approx. 7 p.m. Eastern time
One of the most entertaining players on the ATP tour, Gael Monfils continued to shake off the rust of a three-month break with a win over the in-form Maxime Creasy on Wednesday. Monfils needed a few playback breaks to get the job done, but with two games now under his belt in Montreal, Lamon’s fitness can likely be trusted for his next match with British rookie Jack Draper.
It’s been breakout season for the 20-year-old Draper. Draper was ranked outside the top 200 in January, and now finds himself in a position to approach the top 50 rankings with a victory over Monfils.
As impressive as the Draper has been over the past eight months, this area remains relatively unknown to the Englishman. Draper has won 70% of his matches in the past 52 weeks (42-18) and 79% of matches on hard courts, but most of those matches came on the Challenge Tour. On the main level, Draper is 6-3 on the hard court (including the playoffs), and his results include a big win (Tsitsipas), but also a loss to world number 229 Ramkumar Ramanathan.
In other words, the Draper is on the rise, but the upward trajectory in tennis is hardly ever clear.
And it’s fair to say that a player like Monfils, a silly defender who can keep himself in the rally, should be able to stand up to Draper’s impressive drive. Both players will chase every last ball, but the Monfils experience should be vital against a player playing their first match of the Round of 16 in the Masters 1000 event.
Draper has proven to be a dangerous opponent, but this seems like a classic overreaction to his stunning performance against Tsitsipas. Had these two played two days earlier, that streak would be further shaded toward Monfils, even with it being his first tournament since May.
Abstract forgets Monfils projects as a favorite with 63%, which translates to -170 on the money line. Even if you take into account extenuating circumstances – Monfils rust and Draper’s upward trend – the price at La Monf still looks pretty cheap.
Tennis picks and bets today
the bet: Moonfils -125 (BetMGM)